“Should I buy this?” starts with “how full does it have to be just to break even?” Enter the property’s numbers below. The calculator solves for the occupancy at which cash flow hits zero — first if you run it yourself, then if you hand it to a full-service manager. Compare each against the occupancy the market realistically delivers.
How to read it. Break-even occupancy is the share of nights you must book to cover operating costs, reserve funding, and debt — with nothing left over. A floor below your expected market occupancy means a cushion; a floor at or above it means the base case already sits at break-even, with no room for a soft season. Because a manager’s fee is a share of revenue, hiring one raises the floor substantially — often the difference between a deal that carries itself and one that doesn’t.
This is the downside dimension from Does This Deal Actually Pencil? — one of four you’d weigh before buying. The full method is in The STR Deal Underwriting Manual.
✓ Source it — trace every number to real evidence, not a headline.
✓ Haircut it — discount for the year you’ll actually have; round revenue down, costs up.
✓ Record it — value, source, and haircut, in The Assumptions Ledger.
✓ Stress it — move the numbers that matter to their downside before you trust them.
Educational information only — not individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Results are an illustrative model based on the inputs you provide, not a projection or a recommendation.