Short-Term Rentals01 · Deal Analysis
Underwriting one specific property: assumptions you can defend, revenue and costs estimated without flattering them, and knowing which numbers to trust before you buy.
How to underwrite a short-term rental end to end — set conservative assumptions, estimate revenue without fooling yourself, model the real cost stack, and reach a go / no-go you can defend.
Matt Nunn · 21 min read
What it covers
Start with the guide above — the rest of Deal Analysis builds on it.
Assumptions come first, because every model inherits them. Revenue and costs follow, then the returns, and last the verdict.
Every model is only as good as its inputs. Set them conservatively and pressure-test them.
ADR, occupancy, RevPAN — and how not to overestimate.
The full operating-cost stack, and why your Airbnb isn't cash flowing.
Cash-on-cash, cap rate, break-even — and which to trust.
The capstone decision, with the calculator attached.
Judgment calls, not how-tos — each weighs the options for your situation.
Calculators and working references that go with these guides.
A letter for people who run property as a business. One idea at a time on the financial side of ownership — what changed, what it means, and what an operator should do about it. Written for short-term and long-term rental owners alike.
